There is a good deal of cash to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the primary tournament. I’ll be going heavier than usual this week following the big GPP prizes, and that I will play less cash games than usual. Here is the first time we’ve seen a 30k top prize, therefore I think it is well worth chasing if you have the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling out of the struggle against Brian Ortega, so we’re down to 11 fights and we ought to observe a great deal of ties with this card together with all the popular lineups. If you are chasing that $30K then you will want to attempt to be a little different with your lineup so that you can distinguish yourself from the remainder of the area. That said, let’s get into a few plays I like in addition to my fade of the week.
Money Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is way off from the gambling line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his competitor, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That’s just too much line value to pass on in money games and that makes Felder that the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this battle, he should be so highly owned that it won’t even hurt your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so perhaps consider preventing the chalk there in the event that you can. But with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the cash game play of the week.
GPP drama of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a little weird because I literally just picked Paul Felder because my cash play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about possession. In case Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup because only 10% of lineups didn’t have him and you only need to be top ~50 percent of the field to cash in cash games. In GPPs, I’m imagining Felder will probably be over 50% possessed. When he loses, that is half of the field that is dead with no shot at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% just due to this mispriced line. If Felder loses and kills off 50% of lineups, then you get a win with the low owned man to put you at a far better place of a solo 1st place win and maybe hitting that $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anybody and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Can it shock you much if Perry could KO him? In GPPs, we’re interested in finding that boom or bust drama and that’s Mike Perry this week which makes him my GPP drama of this week.
Underdog play of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this struggle happened 5 decades before, but today we get a fading Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can continue to keep this fight standing for many the fight and that will give him a big advantage. He is also dangerous on the ground himself and if he is taken I believe he is going to be able to get up if he is not able to acquire a submission of his own. If Pettis can acquire a decision then I presume he will pay off his DK cost and will be a good underdog to use so you can conserve salary in your lineups. I may even find this fight ending early from Pettis falling Chiesa using a body kick and if this happens he will likely be on the winning lineup when he could make it happen in round 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I really do think he wins the fight, but I do not find him paying off that large price . He does not fight at a hefty rate and he has not gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins as well as the floor is where he will have his biggest edge in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and in his wages this week I need at least 91 points from him to pay that much. I would rather pay up for the men higher priced compared to Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or Miocic. I’ll have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of these, making him my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
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